Research & Commentary
Emerging Markets Part II: The China Discount
China’s market discount reflects real risks, from property stress and weak consumer confidence to VIE ownership structures and Taiwan-related uncertainty. But the bigger question is whether investors are pricing those risks too broadly, especially for companies whose cash flows and strategic importance may make them harder to dismiss.
Quarterly Market Update
The second quarter was the strongest for U.S. stocks since 2020. During the quarter inflation jumped, the Fed chair changed, and the conflict with Iran started and may have ended with a handshake agreement. Time will tell if it holds.
Emerging Markets, Part I: You Don't Own What You Think You Own
Emerging-markets funds may not deliver the exposure investors expect, with major allocations to quasi-developed semiconductor giants masking the true growth story underneath.
Ample Is Not Abundant
Markets have grown accustomed to policy support arriving quickly when stress emerges, but the cushion behind that response may be thinner than investors assume. As the Fed shifts from abundant to merely ample reserves, future interventions could come with higher credibility, inflation, and long-rate costs.
What Counts as Normal?
Long-end Treasury demand is becoming more selective, and if higher yields are the new normal, the valuation and policy assumptions built around the post-2008 era may need to reset.
Kindling, Not the Match
Low volatility may look like resilience, but this piece argues that leverage, passive flows, systematic strategies, and conditional buybacks can quietly turn market calm into kindling.
Rewriting the Rulebook for Mega IPOs
An extraordinary company can still be a difficult stock—especially when mega IPOs, thin floats, founder control, and faster index inclusion may force public investors in before real price discovery has occurred.
Large Relative to What?
A record cash pile may sound bullish, but this piece argues the better question is whether that cash is large enough relative to an equity market sitting near historical extremes.
The Brain Was Never Built for This
Why investors so often buy high, sell low, and mistake instinct for wisdom—and how disciplined structure can help overcome the brain’s oldest financial blind spots.
The Cart Before the Horse
AI-driven markets are spending as though the future is already solved—but valuations, leverage, and concentration suggest the margin for error is shrinking.
Artificial Intelligence - What It Is, What It Can Do, and Where It Falls Short
What AI actually is.